Most of the medical observational studies estimate the causal treatment effects using electronic health records (EHR), where a patient's covariates and outcomes are both observed longitudinally. However, previous methods focus only on adjusting for the covariates while neglecting the temporal structure in the outcomes. To bridge the gap, this paper develops a new method, SyncTwin, that learns a patient-specific time-constant representation from the pre-treatment observations. SyncTwin issues counterfactual prediction of a target patient by constructing a synthetic twin that closely matches the target in representation. The reliability of the estimated treatment effect can be assessed by comparing the observed and synthetic pre-treatment outcomes. The medical experts can interpret the estimate by examining the most important contributing individuals to the synthetic twin. In the real-data experiment, SyncTwin successfully reproduced the findings of a randomized controlled clinical trial using observational data, which demonstrates its usability in the complex real-world EHR.

Generalizing causal knowledge across diverse environments is challenging, especially when estimates from large-scale datasets must be applied to smaller or systematically different contexts, where external validity is critical. Model-based estimators of individual treatment effects (ITE) from machine learning require large sample sizes, limiting their applicability in domains such as behavioral sciences with smaller datasets. We demonstrate how estimation of ITEs with Treatment Agnostic Representation Networks (TARNet; Shalit et al., 2017) can be improved by leveraging knowledge from source datasets and adapting it to new settings via transfer learning (TL-TARNet; Aloui et al., 2023). In simulations that vary source and sample sizes and consider both randomized and non-randomized intervention target settings, the transfer-learning extension TL-TARNet improves upon standard TARNet, reducing ITE error and attenuating bias when a large unbiased source is available and target samples are small. In an empirical application using the India Human Development Survey (IHDS-II), we estimate the effect of mothers' firewood collection time on children's weekly study time; transfer learning pulls the target mean ITEs toward the source ITE estimate, reducing bias in the estimates obtained without transfer. These results suggest that transfer learning for causal models can improve the estimation of ITE in small samples.

Estimating Individual Treatment Effects (ITE) from observational data is challenging due to confounding bias. Most studies tackle this bias by balancing distributions globally, but ignore individual heterogeneity and fail to capture the local structure that represents the natural clustering among individuals, which ultimately compromises ITE estimation. While instance-level alignment methods consider heterogeneity, they similarly overlook the local structure information. To address these issues, we propose an end-to-end Multi-\textbf{P}rototype alignment method for \textbf{ITE} estimation (\textbf{PITE}). PITE effectively captures local structure within groups and enforces cross-group alignment, thereby achieving robust ITE estimation. Specifically, we first define prototypes as cluster centroids based on similar individuals under the same treatment. To identify local similarity and the distribution consistency, we perform instance-to-prototype matching to assign individuals to the nearest prototype within groups, and design a multi-prototype alignment strategy to encourage the matched prototypes to be close across treatment arms in the latent space. PITE not only reduces distribution shift through fine-grained, prototype-level alignment, but also preserves the local structures of treated and control groups, which provides meaningful constraints for ITE estimation. Extensive evaluations on benchmark datasets demonstrate that PITE outperforms 13 state-of-the-art methods, achieving more accurate and robust ITE estimation.

Transplant-organs are a scarce medical resource.

Mechanical thrombectomy has become the standard of care in patients with stroke due to large vessel occlusion (LVO). However, only 50% of successfully treated patients show a favorable outcome. We developed and evaluated interpretable deep learning models to predict functional outcomes in terms of the modified Rankin Scale score alongside individualized treatment effects (ITEs) using data of 449 LVO stroke patients from a randomized clinical trial. Besides clinical variables, we considered non-contrast CT (NCCT) and angiography (CTA) scans which were integrated using novel foundation models to make use of advanced imaging information. Clinical variables had a good predictive power for binary functional outcome prediction (AUC of 0.719 [0.666, 0.774]) which could slightly be improved when adding CTA imaging (AUC of 0.737 [0.687, 0.795]). Adding NCCT scans or a combination of NCCT and CTA scans to clinical features yielded no improvement. The most important clinical predictor for functional outcome was pre-stroke disability. While estimated ITEs were well calibrated to the average treatment effect, discriminatory ability was limited indicated by a C-for-Benefit statistic of around 0.55 in all models. In summary, the models allowed us to jointly integrate CT imaging and clinical features while achieving state-of-the-art prediction performance and ITE estimates. Yet, further research is needed to particularly improve ITE estimation.

We introduce KANITE, a framework leveraging Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (KANs) for Individual Treatment Effect (ITE) estimation under multiple treatments setting in causal inference. By utilizing KAN's unique abilities to learn univariate activation functions as opposed to learning linear weights by Multi-Layer Perceptrons (MLPs), we improve the estimates of ITEs. The KANITE framework comprises two key architectures: 1.Integral Probability Metric (IPM) architecture: This employs an IPM loss in a specialized manner to effectively align towards ITE estimation across multiple treatments. 2. Entropy Balancing (EB) architecture: This uses weights for samples that are learned by optimizing entropy subject to balancing the covariates across treatment groups. Extensive evaluations on benchmark datasets demonstrate that KANITE outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms in both $\epsilon_{\text{PEHE}}$ and $\epsilon_{\text{ATE}}$ metrics. Our experiments highlight the advantages of KANITE in achieving improved causal estimates, emphasizing the potential of KANs to advance causal inference methodologies across diverse application areas.

Estimating individual treatment effect (ITE) from observational data has gained increasing attention across various domains, with a key challenge being the identification of latent confounders affecting both treatment and outcome. Networked observational data offer new opportunities to address this issue by utilizing network information to infer latent confounders. However, most existing approaches assume observed variables and network information serve only as proxy variables for latent confounders, which often fails in practice, as some variables influence treatment but not outcomes, and vice versa. Recent advances in disentangled representation learning, which disentangle latent factors into instrumental, confounding, and adjustment factors, have shown promise for ITE estimation. Building on this, we propose a novel disentangled variational graph autoencoder that learns disentangled factors for treatment effect estimation on networked observational data. Our graph encoder further ensures factor independence using the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion. Extensive experiments on two semi-synthetic datasets derived from real-world social networks and one synthetic dataset demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance.

Causal effect estimation under observational studies is challenging due to the lack of ground truth data and treatment assignment bias. Though various methods exist in literature for addressing this problem, most of them ignore multi-dimensional treatment information by considering it as scalar, either continuous or discrete. Recently, certain works have demonstrated the utility of this rich yet complex treatment information into the estimation process, resulting in better causal effect estimation. However, these works have been demonstrated on either graphs or textual treatments. There is a notable gap in existing literature in addressing higher dimensional data such as images that has a wide variety of applications. In this work, we propose a model named NICE (Network for Image treatments Causal effect Estimation), for estimating individual causal effects when treatments are images. NICE demonstrates an effective way to use the rich multidimensional information present in image treatments that helps in obtaining improved causal effect estimates. To evaluate the performance of NICE, we propose a novel semi-synthetic data simulation framework that generates potential outcomes when images serve as treatments. Empirical results on these datasets, under various setups including the zero-shot case, demonstrate that NICE significantly outperforms existing models that incorporate treatment information for causal effect estimation.